First, the boom
Set the size of the stablecoin market and how issuers hold their reserves. The ledger shows what that buys the Treasury — and what it takes from the banks.
$1.5T
Today: about $0.3T. GENIUS-era projections run to $2T–$3T.
65%
20%
The rest sits in bank deposits: 15%
T-bill demand created
$975Bvs. TBAC’s ≈$1T projection for 2028
Cash supplied to repo markets
$300Bfunding someone else’s leverage overnight
Held as bank deposits
$225Bconcentrated wholesale money, not retail funding
Then, the run
A confidence shock hits on day one. Issuers liquidate reserves pro-rata to meet redemptions. Congestion fees and funding stress decide whether the run fizzles or feeds itself. Fourteen days.
3.0% of supply
1.0×
How hard fees spike when everyone moves at once — the Fed’s run-without-bad-reserves mechanism.
$1.8T
The borrowing that finances $2.4T of levered Treasury longs — and must be rolled every morning.
…and forced selling feeds the next day’s redemptions.
Absorbed
Total redeemed—
Peak funding spread—
Peak gas fees—
Lowest peg price—
Fourteen mornings
redemptions, $B/dayfunding spread, bpspeg price